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The European Parliament elections which have just taken place signal a set of new dynamics between political parties in the European Union and reveal many important lessons which we as advocates for the ICPD agenda and more broadly for global health and women's rights would be wise to take note of.  At a practical level, the new composition of the European Parliament will have a significant impact on how SRHR are handled at EU level, requiring building a new set of alliances across political parties.  

I. Several major trends can be observed in the election results, including:

1) Conservative/centre-right parties, despite some losses, were the clear winners in 21 out of the EU's 27 Member States, and were at roughly equal turnout with centre-left socialist/social-democratic parties in an additional 4 Member States. The results signal a clear shift in favour of the centre-right parties in nearly all Member States with the exception of Denmark, Czech Rep., Greece and Malta where the centre-left parties were the winners.

2) Significant gains are made by Green parties across many Member States, for example in Germany, and most noteworthy in France and French-speaking Belgium where they doubled their score, earning them the rank of 3rd largest party in their country/electoral region.

3) Liberal parties also fared very well, most notably in Germany (FDP), Sweden (FP, C), The Netherlands (D-66)

4) Centre-left socialist/social-democratic parties are the clear losers of the elections. Where they are in government such as Spain and Portugal, they did not succeed in mobilising their voters sufficiently resulting in centre-right victories. Where the centre-left is in opposition such as France and Italy, they failed to convince voters to support them. The centre-left party which suffered the most was the UK's Labour party coming in 3rd after the Conservatives and the Eurosceptic UK Independence Party.

5) Populist and sometimes extremist parties made significant inroads in a number of countries, most noteworthy are the UK Independence Party (UKIP) winning 13 seats and the Party For Freedom (PVV) of the Netherlands headed by Geert Wilders who is known for his anti-Islamic views, both parties coming in as the second biggest party in their respective countries. Other parties of concern include ATAKA of Bulgaria, the British National Party and Austria's Freedom Party.

II.  Impact in the European Parliament :

As support for SRHR is often won and lost by votes within the European Parliament, it is useful to understand the relative strength of the many political parties in the EP. Because the total number of MEPs in this round of elections is less (736 compared to 783), their absolute number per party in the EP only tells part of the story - one needs to look at the parties' relative strength in the European Parliament.

1) The centre-right European People's Party (EPP) will remain the largest group in the EP with 36% of seats in the EP (even without the UK Conservatives), compared with 37% previously (which included the UK Conservatives). Lacking an absolute majority, they will need to turn to the centre left to forge larger alliances, for example among the Greens and the Liberals who look as if they could play a position of ‘kingmaker’.

2) The centre-left Party of European Socialists (PES) shrinks dramatically to only 162 MEPs, representing 21% of the EP (previously 27%), while remaining the second biggest group in the EP.

3) The Liberals and Greens both maintain sizable groups in the EP, the Greens increasing in absolute numbers and therefore also relative strength in the European Parliament.

4) A important unknown in the future composition of the EP is where the UK Conservatives will go and with whom. Having won nearly 30 seats, the UK Conservatives had announced earlier this year their withdrawal from the EPP. According to the rules of the EP, they will need to find allies from other parties and other Member States in order to qualify as a recognised 'group' within the EP and benefit from the funding provided to such groups.

III. Loss of the traditional "pro-SRHR" base

Support in the EP for SRHR has traditionally come from well known sources and over the past few years a clear voting pattern emerged, best exemplified by the vote on the EP Resolution on MDG5 in October 2008. The pattern of support for SRHR required a socialist-liberal-green-left alliance, combined with an equally important division within the centre-right (EPP) and right. With the clear swing in favour of the centre-right, are SRHR at risk?

1) The traditional 'pro-SRHR' alliance of socialists-liberals-greens-left will have 44% in the EP, compared to 51% in the 2004-2009 period. Therefore, the traditional 'pro-SRHR' will have lost its absolute majority and will now depend to a greater extent on support from centre-right parties such as the EPP.

2) For the first time, to win a simple majority vote in the EP on SRHR will require a defection to a pro-SRHR position by at least 44 members of the EPP (or other centre-right parties such as the UK Tories or others currently 'non-aligned').

3) With the departure of the UK Conservatives, the EPP is now perhaps a more 'homogenous' political group, raising questions about the possibility of generating significant defections from party positions.

4) While there are no clear party positions on SRHR within the EPP group, the largest constituent members of the EPP are the German CDU/CSU (42), Italian PdL/UDC (35), French UMP (30) and Polish PO/PSL (28) and can therefore be expected to take on a leadership role within the EPP. The German, Italian and Polish conservatives parties in the EPP have all shown on previous occasions a nearly unanimous voting record against SRHR.

5) In the EP, the President is traditionally agreed by consensus among the two largest parties (EPP and PES). With the clear dominance of the EPP in the recent elections, both the Italian and Polish conservative parties have started fielding names for the future President of the EP.